Tight Global Supply & High Screen Demand: Securing Screen 15+ Washed and Natural Ugandan Lots
By Sandra Nansbuga
Tight Global Supply & High Screen Demand: Securing Screen 15+ Washed and Natural Ugandan Lots
Global coffee stocks tightened sharply through June 2026, with combined ICE-certified Arabica and Robusta stocks falling to their lowest level since February 2024, while Robusta futures and cash prices both rose that month even as Arabica fell. For buyers targeting higher-screen Ugandan Robusta lots, this combination of a shrinking deliverable buffer and continued Arabica-to-Robusta substitution demand is a signal to review forward-contracting timelines now rather than after the next price move.
What the data shows
The International Coffee Organization's Coffee Market Report for June 2026 shows combined ICE-certified stocks of Arabica and Robusta coffee fell to 1.09 million bags on 30 June 2026, the lowest level since February 2024, while London-certified Robusta stocks specifically rose 4.8% from May to June 2026 to close the month at 0.68 million bags. Robusta prices increased 1.7% month-on-month to 169.39 US cents/lb in June 2026, and the London ICE Robusta futures market rose 2.7% to 155.90 US cents/lb over the same period, even as New York Arabica futures fell 4.3%. The same report notes global Robusta green bean exports rose 4.8% to 4.34 million bags in May 2026 compared with May 2025, while Arabica exports fell 9.3% over the same comparison, continuing a 13-month downward trend in Arabica shipments.
On Uganda specifically, the ICO report notes that combined Ethiopia-Uganda exports fell 26.0% in May 2026 compared with May 2025, but attributes this to a base effect: May 2025 was a record month for both origins, driven by a strong harvest in Uganda's Masaka and Southwestern regions combined with price-induced stock releases. The report states that the incentive to release additional stock has since reduced, with the ICO Composite Indicator Price 23.4% lower in May 2026 than a year earlier, meaning the year-on-year decline reflects a high prior-year base rather than a deterioration in current supply.
On grade-specific pricing, UCDA's Monthly Coffee Report for January 2026 recorded Washed Robusta at US$5.04 per kilogram, the highest-priced Robusta category that month, ahead of Screen 17 at US$4.45/kilogram, reflecting the premium buyers already pay for higher-screen, cleaner lots even before accounting for the current global stock tightness.
What this means for buyers
Forward-contracting is a hedge against a market with a shrinking cushion, not a guess on direction. With combined certified stocks at a multi-year low, the market has less spare deliverable supply to absorb a demand spike or a weather-driven supply shock without a sharp price reaction. Buyers who need consistent Screen 15+ washed or natural volume across multiple shipments reduce their exposure to that kind of reaction by locking contracts ahead of, rather than during, a stock-driven price move.
Uganda's year-on-year export decline is a base-effect story, not a supply-tightening one, and buyers should treat it that way in negotiations. Since the ICO explicitly attributes the drop to an exceptional prior-year comparison rather than a weaker current crop, buyers should not assume Ugandan availability has genuinely tightened; exporters should be able to clarify current-season volume expectations directly rather than let the year-on-year percentage stand in for actual supply conditions.
Grade premiums compound with market-wide tightness. Washed Robusta and higher-screen grades already carry a price premium over standard grades in Uganda's own export data; in a global environment where certified stocks are thin, that premium is more likely to widen than narrow if buyers wait to secure volume. Locking in specification and price together, rather than specification now and price later, reduces exposure to that compounding effect.
Weather-driven volatility argues for contract flexibility on timing, not just price. The ICO report flags a high-confidence Super El Niño forecast with potential effects across multiple growing regions in 2026/27. Buyers should build delivery-window flexibility into forward contracts so a regional weather disruption elsewhere in the global market does not force a renegotiation of an otherwise sound Uganda-sourced contract.
FAQ
How tight are global coffee stocks right now?
Combined ICE-certified Arabica and Robusta stocks fell to 1.09 million bags on 30 June 2026, the lowest level since February 2024, according to the ICO's June 2026 Coffee Market Report.
Did Uganda's coffee exports actually decline in May 2026?
Combined Ethiopia-Uganda exports fell 26.0% year-on-year in May 2026, but the ICO attributes this to May 2025 being an exceptional record month rather than a current-season supply shortfall.
Which Robusta grade commanded the highest price in Uganda's most recent published data?
UCDA's January 2026 Monthly Coffee Report recorded Washed Robusta at US$5.04 per kilogram as the highest-priced Robusta category that month, ahead of Screen 17 at US$4.45/kilogram.
Sources
ICO, Coffee Market Report – June 2026
UCDA, Monthly Coffee Report – January 2026
Sources: International Coffee Organization's Coffee Market Report for June 2026 | UCDA's Monthly Coffee Report for January 2026