How to Read Uganda Coffee Export Numbers: Volume, Value and Unit Value

How to Read Uganda Coffee Export Numbers: Volume, Value and Unit Value

Uganda coffee export value is volume multiplied by average unit value, so a monthly change in value must be split into those two parts before it means anything. In August 2026, according to the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, value fell 10.99 percent from July while unit value rose 2.15 percent, so the whole fall came from volume.

What do the three Uganda coffee export figures measure?

The Ministry monthly report publishes three coffee lines: value exported in US$ million, volume exported in millions of 60 kg bags, and average unit value in US$ per kg of coffee. The report notes that trade statistics have a lag of one month, so the September 2026 edition covers August 2026.

How did the Uganda coffee export figures split in August 2026?

Measure	Aug-2025	Jul-2026	Aug-2026	Aug-2026 vs Aug-2025	Aug-2026 vs Jul-2026
Value (US$ million)	202.75	204.08	181.65	-10.41%	-10.99%
Volume (million 60 kg bags)	0.86	0.85	0.74	-13.76%	-12.86%
Unit value (US$ per kg)	3.95	4.02	4.10	3.89%	2.15%

Against July, bags shipped fell 12.86 percent while unit value rose 2.15 percent, so price cushioned the fall in value slightly. Against August 2025 the pattern repeats.

The report attributes the decline to a prolonged drought and unusually high temperatures in Greater Masaka, Kyotera, Sembabule and Luwero, which it says reduced harvests in those areas by an estimated 10 percent below the normal average. It also cites downward pressure on global Robusta prices from increased supplies from Brazil and Vietnam. Yet unit value still rose in August, which shows that the headline price story and the unit value line can differ within one month.

Can unit value move against tonnage over a longer run?

Yes. The report data table covers September 2025 to August 2026 and shows the two moving apart. In December 2025 volume was 0.50 million bags, the lowest of those twelve months, while unit value was US$ 4.97 per kg, the highest. In June 2026 the pattern reversed: volume was 0.77 million bags and unit value was US$ 3.78 per kg, the lowest.

Value alone also misleads. September 2025 shipped 0.84 million bags at US$ 4.31 per kg for US$ 218.55 million. July 2026 shipped 0.85 million bags at US$ 4.02 per kg for US$ 204.08 million. Volume was almost the same, but unit value explains the lower value.

What does the split do to exporter margins?

The report publishes no cost or margin data, so margins cannot be read from it. As analysis, a higher unit value in a short crop does not by itself mean wider margins, because the cost of buying coffee from farmers can rise in the same month.

How do buyers and exporters use the split in negotiation?

Buyers can treat the unit value as a national average for context, not as a price for a specific grade or lot.

Exporters facing a volume shortfall can use the Ministry attribution to the drought-hit districts to explain quantity flexibility in a contract, while keeping price terms tied to the agreed reference. Buyers can ask which districts supply a lot and agree quality terms in advance, such as sample drawing and retention.

FAQ

Q: What does unit value mean in the Ministry coffee export table?
A: The Ministry table defines it as the average unit value in US$ per kg of coffee. It was US$ 4.10 in August 2026, against US$ 4.02 in July 2026.

Q: Did Uganda coffee export value fall in August 2026 because of lower prices?
A: Not according to the table. Against July 2026, volume fell 12.86 percent and unit value rose 2.15 percent, so volume drove the 10.99 percent fall in value.

Q: How current are these Uganda coffee export figures?
A: The September 2026 Ministry report covers August 2026, because trade statistics have a lag of one month. The monthly series in its data table runs from September 2025 to August 2026.

Sources: Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development