MY 2026/27 Uganda Production Outlook: Sourcing Green Beans as Exports Hit 6.8 Million Bags
By Sandra Nansbuga
MY 2026/27 Uganda Production Outlook: Sourcing Green Beans as Exports Hit 6.8 Million Bags
USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service projects Uganda's coffee exports to rise from 6.7 million to 6.8 million 60-kilogram bags in marketing year 2026/27, a forecast rather than a completed total, alongside a production increase to 7.1-7.2 million bags supported by expanding planted area. This outlook is driven by structural area growth rather than a one-off harvest spike, which is the more relevant signal for roasters evaluating Uganda as a reliable, multi-year sourcing origin.
The production forecast. FAS Nairobi forecasts Uganda's total coffee production for marketing year 2026/27 to increase to between 7.1 and 7.2 million 60-kilogram bags, up from an estimated 7.095 million bags in 2025/26 and 6.7 million bags in 2024/25, according to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service's May 2026 Coffee Annual report. Within that forecast, Robusta is expected to account for 6.025 million bags and Arabica for 1.135 million bags, per Daily Coffee News's summary of the same report.
What's driving the growth. Planted coffee area is forecast to rise to 595,000 hectares in 2026/27, up from 590,000 hectares in 2025/26, with harvested area forecast at 580,000 hectares. Part of the area increase reflects a gradual shift from timber production to coffee specifically in the Masaka region, according to Daily Coffee News's summary of the USDA report. This is a structural, multi-season shift rather than a single-year swing, since newly planted trees take years to reach full yield.
Export volume, correctly framed. Coffee exports in marketing year 2026/27 are projected to rise from 6.7 million to 6.8 million bags, according to USDA's own summary of the Coffee Annual report. This figure is a forecast for a marketing year that has not concluded, not a confirmed export total already achieved; treating "6.8 million bags" as a completed milestone would misstate what the source actually reports.
Price context. Ugandan coffee export prices rose from $2.63 per kilogram in 2023/24 to $4.64 per kilogram in 2024/25, before easing slightly to $4.51 per kilogram in 2025/26, according to Daily Coffee News's summary of the USDA report. Prices therefore remain well above pre-2023/24 levels even as they have eased from their peak.
Domestic consumption and supply structure. Domestic consumption is forecast to increase slightly to 335,000 bags in 2026/27, supported by growth in the hospitality sector and rising urban coffee consumption, per USDA. More than 85% of Uganda's coffee comes from smallholder farms typically ranging from 0.5 to 2.5 hectares, according to Daily Coffee News's summary of the report.
What this means for buyers
Because the 6.8 million bag export figure is a USDA projection rather than a locked-in outcome, buyers should treat it as a directional signal for planning purposes rather than a guaranteed supply number when structuring forward contracts; actual export performance will depend on the 2026/27 harvest materializing as forecast. The area expansion story matters more for multi-year sourcing strategy than for near-term availability, since land shifting from timber to coffee in Masaka and elsewhere will not add meaningfully to exportable volume for several seasons; buyers looking for supply continuity signals should weight this as a medium-term structural indicator rather than an immediate volume cushion. On pricing, the easing from $4.64/kg to $4.51/kg between 2024/25 and 2025/26 is a modest pullback from a near-doubling of prices in the prior year, not a return toward the $2.63/kg levels seen in 2023/24, so buyers budgeting against a "return to normal" price environment should recalibrate that assumption. Domestic consumption growth to a forecast 335,000 bags remains a small fraction of total production, meaning it is not yet a meaningful competing draw on exportable supply, which supports the reliability case for export-oriented sourcing from Uganda specifically.
| Attribute | MY 2024/25 | MY 2025/26 | MY 2026/27 (forecast) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total production (60-kg bags) | 6.7 million | 7.095 million (est.) | 7.1-7.2 million |
| Export price (US$/kg) | $4.64 | $4.51 | Not yet reported |
| Planted area (hectares) | Not specified in cited report | 590,000 | 595,000 (forecast) |
FAQ
Q: Has Uganda's coffee export volume actually reached 6.8 million bags?
A: No. USDA's May 2026 Coffee Annual report projects exports will rise from 6.7 million to 6.8 million bags in marketing year 2026/27, a forecast for a year still in progress, not a confirmed completed total.
Q: How much is Uganda's coffee-planted area expected to grow for the 2026/27 season?
A: Planted area is forecast to rise to 595,000 hectares in 2026/27, up from 590,000 hectares in 2025/26, according to USDA's Coffee Annual report as summarized by Daily Coffee News.
Q: Are Uganda coffee export prices still near their recent record levels?
A: Prices eased from $4.64 per kilogram in 2024/25 to $4.51 per kilogram in 2025/26, but remain well above the $2.63 per kilogram level recorded in 2023/24, according to USDA's Coffee Annual report.
Sources: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service | Daily Coffee News