As warming shifts where coffee can grow, the Ugandan highlands gain a structural edge

As warming shifts where coffee can grow, the Ugandan highlands gain a structural edge

In October 2026 a plantation outside Palermo became the first in Italy to grow and harvest Arabica coffee, a milestone its promoters attribute to a warming climate. The same warming that is pushing coffee into new latitudes is also redrawing the map inside established origins, and it is raising the strategic value of Uganda's cool, high-altitude Arabica zones.

Yahoo News UK reported that the Morettino family estate at San Lorenzo ai Colli, a few hundred metres above sea level in Sicily, produced around 100 kilograms of coffee cherries that yielded just over 15 kilograms of roasted beans. The project involves the University and Botanical Garden of Palermo studying how tropical crops adapt to a Mediterranean climate. It is symbolic, not commercial volume.

The wider trend is now quantified. Rabobank research published on 24 March 2026 states that 8% of current global Arabica growing areas are already classified as unsuitable, and projects that share could reach 20% by 2050. The analysis suggests Ethiopia's suitable zones may expand, while Honduras faces the steepest decline, with suitable area shrinking to 12% of its base.

For Uganda the picture is more balanced than the headline suggests. A study by Abigaba and colleagues in Agroforestry Systems, published on 3 July 2024, projects that climate change will cut the land suitable for growing Arabica coffee in Uganda by 20% under SSP3-RCP7.0 by 2050, with a shift in suitable areas toward the highlands that could encroach on protected land. The same model projects smaller Robusta losses, about 9%, and finds agroforestry shading can partly offset Robusta losses but not Arabica ones.

Uganda's exposure is cushioned by its crop mix. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts Uganda's 2025/26 output at 6.875 million 60-kilogram bags, of which about 5.815 million are Robusta and 1.06 million Arabica. Arabica is grown in the highland ranges mapped by the Uganda Coffee Development Authority, on the slopes of Mount Elgon, the Rwenzori range and Mount Muhabura, where the mean elevation is 1,855 metres and temperatures run from 6 to 24°C.

The University of Exeter coffee hardiness research, covering Kenya, Ethiopia and Uganda, sets the temperature and elevation bands used below.

Attribute	Arabica	Robusta
Optimal elevation	800 to 2,000 m above sea level	0 to 800 m above sea level
Optimal temperature	14 to 28°C	20 to 30°C
Share of Uganda's 2025/26 forecast	1.06 million bags	5.815 million bags

What this means for buyers

For importers and roasters, the commercial read is diversification with eyes open. Uganda's highland Arabica occupies cooler elevations that warming makes relatively more valuable, and its Robusta majority is the more heat-tolerant half of the global market. That argues for treating Uganda as a structural component of a multi-origin blend rather than a swing origin.

But the advantage is relative, not absolute. With Uganda's Arabica-suitable area projected to fall 20% by 2050 and shift uphill, buyers should contract against realistic seasonal volumes near current elevations rather than assume area will expand. The European Union, which the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service records as taking 72% of Uganda's coffee exports in 2024, remains the anchor market, so traceability and quality consistency across smallholder supply matter as much as price. Monitoring temperature trends in the highland districts, where early ripening can affect bean size and cup quality, is a practical risk check for forward contracts.

FAQ

Q: Where does Uganda grow its Arabica coffee?
A: The Uganda Coffee Development Authority maps the highland ranges on the slopes of Mount Elgon in the east, the Rwenzori range in the west and Mount Muhabura in the south west, at a mean elevation of 1,855 metres.

Q: Does climate change mean more coffee area for Uganda?
A: Not in absolute terms. The Agroforestry Systems study projects Uganda's Arabica-suitable area falling by 20% by 2050 under SSP3-RCP7.0, with a shift toward the highlands. Robusta losses are projected at about 9%.

Q: How important is Robusta to Uganda's supply?
A: The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts Uganda's 2025/26 output at 6.875 million bags, with 5.815 million Robusta and 1.06 million Arabica.