Robusta Futures Shifts: Navigating London ICE Price Volatility via Ugandan Origin Differentials
By Sandra Nansbuga
Robusta Futures Shifts: Navigating London ICE Price Volatility via Ugandan Origin Differentials
Unlike the ICE Coffee "C" Arabica contract in New York, which publishes a formal origin differential grid that lists Uganda at par, the ICE Robusta Coffee futures contract traded in London does not publish a Uganda-specific origin differential. Traders instead track Uganda Robusta pricing informally against reference points like the ICO's daily Robustas group indicator and UCDA's own FOB grade quotes, comparing these to the London futures settlement to gauge basis. As of late August 2026, those reference points show Uganda's export prices trading close to, and in some grades below, the broader Robusta indicator.
No official ICE differential for Uganda Robusta. ICE's Coffee "C" Arabica contract specification explicitly lists Mexico, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Papua New Guinea, Tanzania, Uganda, Panama, Peru, and Honduras as deliverable "at par," alongside premiums for Colombia, Costa Rica, and Kenya, according to ICE's own contract specifications. This origin differential system applies to the Arabica contract. The separate Robusta Coffee futures contract, traded on ICE Futures Europe in London, does not carry a comparably published Uganda-specific differential; its deliverable-growth structure centers on a different reference standard, and Uganda Robusta is priced against it through trade practice rather than an exchange-set schedule.
Current benchmark levels. The ICO's Composite Indicator Price data shows the Robustas group averaging 182.20 US cents/lb over August 1-24, 2026, ranging between 177.22 and 187.44 cents/lb during that window, with a 1.2% day-on-day change recorded on August 24, according to the International Coffee Organization's indicator price series. Separately, ICE London Robusta futures for the September 2026 position settled at $3,884 per tonne on July 21, 2026, while the Arabica-Robusta spread, measured between New York and London, widened to approximately 148.38 cents/lb that same session, according to Cocoa Intel.
Uganda's own FOB quotes. UCDA's daily coffee market fact sheet listed Robusta Screen 18 at 183.76 US cents/lb, Screen 15 at 178.76 cents/lb, and Screen 12 at 173.76 cents/lb as of 26 August 2026, according to the Uganda Coffee Development Authority. Two weeks earlier, on 14 August 2026, the same fact sheet listed Screen 18 at 177.62 cents/lb, meaning Uganda's top Robusta grade rose roughly 6 cents/lb, or about 3.5%, over that two-week span. Screen 18, Uganda's largest-bean Robusta grade, is currently trading close to the ICO's broader Robustas group average, while the smaller Screen 15 and Screen 12 grades trade at a discount to it.
What this means for buyers
Because no exchange publishes an official Uganda Robusta differential, buyers and traders have to build their own basis tracking rather than referencing a fixed, exchange-quoted number the way they might for an at-par Arabica origin. A practical approach is to log the spread between UCDA's daily Screen 18 FOB quote and the ICE London Robusta front-month settlement over successive weeks, treating that gap as a rolling basis rather than a static differential; the roughly 3.5% move in Uganda's own Screen 18 quote over just two weeks in August illustrates how quickly that basis can shift even when the underlying futures market is comparatively calm. Grade specification matters more here than in markets with a single delivered standard, since Uganda's Screen 18, 15, and 12 grades already carry a built-in spread of 5 to 10 cents/lb between them; any hedge or pricing formula referencing "Uganda Robusta" without specifying the screen grade leaves room for dispute at settlement. The widening Arabica-Robusta spread is also relevant to buyers using Robusta to offset Arabica cost exposure in blends, since a wider spread increases the potential savings from substitution but also means the two markets are moving on different drivers, weakening the reliability of using one to hedge the other directly. Given the absence of a formal exchange mechanism specific to Uganda, locking a season-long contract to a single assumed differential against ICE London carries real basis risk that shorter, more frequently repriced contracts can reduce.
| Reference point | Value | As-of date | Published by |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICE London Robusta futures (Sep'26) | $3,884/tonne | 21 July 2026 | ICE Futures Europe (via Cocoa Intel) |
| ICO I-CIP Robustas group (monthly avg.) | 182.20 US cents/lb | 1-24 August 2026 | International Coffee Organization |
| UCDA Uganda Robusta Screen 18 FOB | 183.76 US cents/lb | 26 August 2026 | Uganda Coffee Development Authority |
FAQ
Q: Does ICE publish an official Robusta futures price differential specifically for Uganda?
A: No. ICE's origin differential system, which lists Uganda "at par," applies to the Coffee "C" Arabica contract traded in New York. The separate Robusta futures contract traded in London does not carry a comparably published Uganda-specific differential.
Q: What was the ICO's Robustas group indicator price in August 2026?
A: The ICO's Robustas group averaged 182.20 US cents/lb over 1-24 August 2026, ranging between 177.22 and 187.44 cents/lb during that period, according to the ICO's I-CIP data series.
Q: How has Uganda's FOB Robusta Screen 18 price moved recently?
A: UCDA's daily fact sheet listed Screen 18 at 183.76 US cents/lb on 26 August 2026, up from 177.62 cents/lb on 14 August 2026, a rise of roughly 3.5% over two weeks.
Sources: ICE | International Coffee Organization | Cocoa Intel | Uganda Coffee Development Authority